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1

Yes, Prime Minister: The key to forecasting British elections

Matthew Lebo, Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

2011

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 194 KB

english, 2011

2

The President's Party in Midterm Elections: Going from Bad to Worse

Alan I. Abramowitz, Albert D. Cover and Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

American Journal of Political Science

Year:

1986

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 980 KB

english, 1986

3

Consumer Demand for Election News: The Horserace Sells

Shanto Iyengar, Helmut Norpoth, Kyu S. Hahn

Journal:

Journal of Politics

Year:

2004

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 176 KB

english, 2004

4

Guns 'N jobs: The FDR legacy

Bankert, Alexa, Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

2013

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 543 KB

english, 2013

5

To Change or Not to Change Horses: The World War II Elections

Journal:

Presidential Studies Quarterly

Year:

2012

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 186 KB

english, 2012

6

The Falklands war and government popularity in Britain: Rally without consequence or surge without decline?

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

1987

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.08 MB

english, 1987

7

Polls and Elections : The New Deal Realignment in Real Time

Norpoth, Helmut, Sidman, Andrew H., Suong, Clara H.

Journal:

Presidential Studies Quarterly

Year:

2013

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 355 KB

english, 2013

8

Forecasting British Elections: The ‘PM and the Pendulum’ Model Reconsidered

Lebo, Matthew J., Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties

Year:

2013

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 332 KB

english, 2013

9

Presidents and the Prospective Voter

Journal:

Journal of Politics

Year:

1996

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 364 KB

english, 1996

10

Partisan Dealignment in the American Electorate: Itemizing the Deductions since 1964

Helmut Norpoth and Jerrold G. Rusk

Journal:

American Political Science Review

Year:

1982

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.29 MB

english, 1982

11

Victory without power: The Pm-Pendulum forecast

Lebo, Matthew J., Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 752 KB

english, 2016

12

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory

Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 147 KB

english, 2016

13

A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts

Campbell, James E., Norpoth, Helmut, Abramowitz, Alan I., Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Tien, Charles, Erikson, Robert S., Wlezien, Christopher, Lockerbie, Brad, Holbrook, Thomas M., Jerôme, Bruno, Jerôme-S

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2017

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 560 KB

english, 2017

14

The American Voter in 1932: Evidence from a Confidential Survey

Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2018

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 632 KB

english, 2018

15

Candidates and issues in the 1980 campaign: The ideological connection

Steven Finkel, Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

Political Behavior

Year:

1984

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 922 KB

english, 1984

16

Economics, politics, and the cycle of presidential popularity

Journal:

Political Behavior

Year:

1984

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.29 MB

english, 1984

17

Electoral myth and reality: Realignments in American politics

Helmut Norpoth, Jerrold G. Rusk

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

2007

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 235 KB

english, 2007

18

From Eisenhower to Bush: Perceptions of candidates and parties

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

2009

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 170 KB

english, 2009

19

From Argentina to Zambia: a world-wide test of economic voting

Sam Wilkin, Brandon Haller, Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

1997

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 966 KB

english, 1997

20

As New Hampshire Goes (In January)

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2005

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 225 KB

english, 2005

21

On the Razor's Edge: The Forecast of the Primary Model

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2008

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 856 KB

english, 2008

22

From Primary to General Election: A Forecast of the Presidential Vote

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2004

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 897 KB

english, 2004

23

Primary Colors: A Mixed Blessing for Al Gore

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2001

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 686 KB

english, 2001

24

The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections

Matthew J. Lebo and Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

British Journal of Political Science

Year:

2007

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.09 MB

english, 2007

25

Reality Bites: News Exposure and Economic Opinion

Haller, H. Brandon, Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Public Opinion Quarterly

Year:

1997

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 180 KB

english, 1997

26

The Electoral Cycle

Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 136 KB

english, 2014

27

History and Primary: The Obama Reelection

Norpoth, Helmut, Bednarczuk, Michael

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2012

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 178 KB

english, 2012

28

PRIMARY MODEL GETS IT RIGHT AND EARLY

Norpoth, Helmut, Bednarczuk, Michael

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2013

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 71 KB

english, 2013

29

Wanted: The Education President: Issue Trespassing by Political Candidates

Norpoth, Helmut, Buchanan, Bruce

Journal:

Public Opinion Quarterly

Year:

1992

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 603 KB

english, 1992

30

Confidence Regained: Economics, Mrs. Thatcher, and the British Voter.

Butler, David, Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

American Political Science Review

Year:

1993

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 134 KB

english, 1993

31

Realignment and Macropartisanship

Michael F. Meffert, Helmut Norpoth and Anirudh V. S. Ruhil

Journal:

American Political Science Review

Year:

2001

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 441 KB

english, 2001

32

The Difference between Attitudes and Nonattitudes in the Mass Public: Just Measurements

Helmut Norpoth and Milton Lodge

Journal:

American Journal of Political Science

Year:

1985

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.33 MB

english, 1985

33

THE PRIMARY MODEL IN 2008

Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2009

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 56 KB

english, 2009

34

Primary Colors: A Mixed Blessing for Al Gore

Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2001

File:

PDF, 664 KB

2001

35

The Red-Green Victory: Against All Odds?

Norpoth, Helmut, Gschwend, Thomas

Journal:

German Politics & Society

Year:

2003

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 4.68 MB

english, 2003

36

Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004

Helmut Norpoth, Andrew H. Sidman

Journal:

Political Behavior

Year:

2007

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 368 KB

english, 2007

37

Divided Government and Economic Voting

Journal:

Journal of Politics

Year:

2001

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 151 KB

english, 2001

38

Fighting to win: Wartime morale in the American public

Andrew H. Sidman, Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

2012

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 838 KB

english, 2012

39

The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections

Helmut Norpoth, Thomas Gschwend

Journal:

International Journal of Forecasting

Year:

2010

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.78 MB

english, 2010

40

Commander-in-chief or chief economist?: The president in the eye of the public

Michael Nickelsburg, Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

2000

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 111 KB

english, 2000

41

Government turnover and economic accountability

Christian Goergen, Helmut Norpoth

Journal:

Electoral Studies

Year:

1991

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.40 MB

english, 1991

42

Guns and Butter and Government Popularity in Britain

Journal:

American Political Science Review

Year:

1987

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.30 MB

english, 1987

43

Mass Media Use and Electoral Choice in West Germany

Helmut Norpoth and Kendall L. Baker

Journal:

Comparative Politics

Year:

1980

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.68 MB

english, 1980

44

Is Clinton Doomed? An Early Forecast for 1996

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

1995

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.26 MB

english, 1995

45

Forecasting Recap: Assessments of the 2008 National Elections Forecasts

James E. Campbell, Helmut Norpoth, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien, Alan I. Abramowitz, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, Thomas Holbrook, Brad Lockerbie, Alfred G. Cuzán, Charles M. Bundric

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2009

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.32 MB

english, 2009

46

The falklands factor

Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Contemporary Record

Year:

1988

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 302 KB

english, 1988

47

Winning with a Bad Economy

D'Elia, Justine, Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Presidential Studies Quarterly

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 323 KB

english, 2014

48

War and Momentum: The 2008 Presidential Nominations

Helmut Norpoth and David F. Perkins

Journal:

Political Science & Politics

Year:

2011

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.15 MB

english, 2011

49

The Making of a More Partisan Electorate in West Germany

Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

British Journal of Political Science

Year:

1984

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.24 MB

english, 1984

50

Candidates on Television: The 1972 Electoral Debates in West Germany

Baker, Kendall L., Norpoth, Helmut

Journal:

Public Opinion Quarterly

Year:

1981

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 778 KB

english, 1981